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Cycle Analysis for Trading for Stocks and Commodities

The DOCument is a trader's journal focusing on analysis of stock and commodity markets from the standpoints of cycle analysis (for technical trade triggers) and macroeconomics (for a fundamental backdrop). Specifically, the Member Letter combines basic cycle trading techniques with proprietary technical and cycle analysis methodologies in order to determine trend changes and generate trade signals.

The Member Letter is published nightly and includes updated analysis of the current cycle views on gold, oil, the dollar, and the stock market, as well as any trades opened or closed for the day. Cycle views are also frequently updated for other commodities, including sugar, cotton, copper, and coffee. More Member Benefits.



Macroeconomic Blog

TrendBands Fund Adds GDX
September 21, 2014

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was added to my hypothetical TrendBands Fund this week... on the short side. As Members know, I have been short gold itself since late July. Until early September, the mining sector was resisting gold's slide, offering a point of hope for relentless gold bulls. That point slipped away over the last three weeks, and GDX is now quite clearly
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TrendBands and Canadian Pacific Rail
September 19, 2014

Railroads are pretty boring businesses, but Warren Buffet found the sector exciting enough to purchase Burlington Northern back in 2010. Rails generate lots of cash and have cost and structural advantages over trucking. So let's say that you began researching other rail lines in the wake of Buffet's deal and found Canadian Pacific to be interesting. Following the stock's action through 2010 and 2011 produced this chart
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Cycle Trading Newsletter

Inflection Struggles
September 21, 2014

We have a few assets struggling to deliver the inflection points that are now due on their charts. Such action is designed to confuse traders and rev up emotions in order to leave weak hands absent of positions or, worse, on the wrong side of the trade. But much of this action is quite typical of the respective price series. For example
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Inflection Points Abound
September 18, 2014

The dollar formed a fairly large reversal candle today. I discussed yesterday my expectation for a rather rapid peak to this new daily cycle, and I believe we may have just seen a peak today. The formation of a swing high tomorrow would convince me, bringing a
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"Give me control of a nation's money supply, and I care not who makes its laws."
- Mayer Amschel Rothschild





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Sample Member Letters

Time to Short Gold
July 24, 2014

Golden Dawn
October 24, 2013

A Cautionary Note on Gold
June 17, 2013

Abnormal Cycles
January 6, 2013

Comprehensive Review of Cycles
September 16, 2012

Dollar Antics Continue
July 5, 2012

Turkish Delight
March 14, 2012

Stalking the Coming ICLs
March 11, 2012

Dollar Peak in Sight
January 5, 2012

Sheer Panic
December 14, 2011


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