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April 1, 2009

A Boring Start to April

The bulls are just all over this market. A large gap down this morning reversed higher into a trending day as every bit of selling pressure was quickly bought up to new highs. Stocks once again met resistance just shy of the SPX 815 pivot, but the chances of seeing the A-B-C correction we desire are waning.

stock index chart

Corrective waves lasting longer than impulsive waves is atypical Elliott Wave behavior.

stock index chart

I think we can rule out a move to SPX 760 altogether if we see any further strength from here.

stock market indicator

Remember if we are in a major counter-trend rally, we should expect bull market behavior out of indicators. Our definition of extreme bullishness should be moved to a reading below 0.75 for a while. Therefore, we now have room for the SPX to make a push for the 875 pivot.

stock market indicator

stock market indicator

The conclusion is that if the S&P 500 is going to visit 760 on this correction is has to move there immediately. Such a decline would certainly work to relieve overbought readings across the board and prepare prices for the next push higher. If the market decides to push for 875 instead, expect the move to be very choppy.

The only new info on the precious metals front is the action in mining shares:

stock chart

Despite a general market that was flat... with regard to both stocks and precious metals themselves... mining shares had a great day. We've seen the equities lead the metals repeatedly, so perhaps this move is foreshadowing an eminent move higher in gold and silver. I would have been more enthusiastic if volume had been higher and GDX had set a new rally high. In any case, I'm still expecting a big move out of PMs in the next 2-3 days, and the action in miners swings the odds toward that move being higher.


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