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June 17, 2013

A Cautionary Note on Gold

Let's take another look at gold and in particular, a peculiar cyclical habit the yellow metal displays around intermediate peaks. Generally-speaking, a right-translated cycle should be followed by a cycle that sets a higher high, but gold's daily cycles tend to break this rule around intermediate cycle peaks. Here are a couple examples:

As I've discussed many times, this behavior tends to be the rule, not the exception, for gold. A study of previous cycle peaks shows the same pattern. Now let's fast-forward to the current setup.

Our original anticipation of a higher high for the current daily cycle was based on expectations for a generally bullish intermediate cycle. However, if the intermediate cycle has peaked, seeing the current cycle fail to reach a higher high would be perfectly normal.

We should receive some sort of confirmation very soon since the cycle has already encroached its timing band for a low. Either price is going to leap higher and salvage a bullish posture, or price is going to crack lower to form a failed daily cycle and confirm an intermediate cycle in decline. And since gold's intermediate cycle is only on Week 9, PMs could suffer 2-3 months of downside into an ICL.

Keep in mind that the result above is only a possibility. Too often readers view these write-ups as predictions, but markets never lend themselves to prediction. We can only try to anticipate certain results based on certain setups, hence the reason I call these views frameworks of expectations rather than frameworks of predictions. For now, we must keep an eye on the $1336 level for gold. A loss of that level would set precious metals on an extended bearish course, and so I continue to remain flat in the Docfolio with regard to the PM complex until a resolution is reached.

 

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