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July 27, 2015

A Couple Quick Cycle Notes

I am suffering from some writer's withdrawal so a quick post here on some cycle observations. Let's begin with the old favorite of my readership: gold. The yellow metal has been causing more angst among those enamored of its former glitter. Price has now tumbled below $1100 for the first time in over five years. The good news is that last Friday should hold for at least a daily cycle low.

The bad news is that gold's weekly cycle count has reserved enough time to form another failed daily cycle.

Furthermore, I have noted for quite some time that long-term support for gold comes in around the $1000-50 range. A lot of bloggers and tweeters have recently made a ruckus about the net short position held by speculators... a first... but such figures are not to be used as precise timing tools.

For sure, a major low is in the works. Gold's multi-year cycle runs 7-9 years. The cycle is now seven years old, so extreme sentiment combined with long-term support and proper timing should give birth to a major rally. However, I do no believe gold's decline will cease without a final, high-volume capitulation.

The recent swing in the equity market is making bear hearts race again, but prudent bears will check their enthusiasm at the door. This 5-day drop is likely to prove to be just another in a number of nasty swings that have characterized 2015 thus far.

Except in established bear markets, stocks do not begin new weekly cycles with left-translated daily cycles. I therefore expect the current daily cycle to set new highs. The whipsaw action of 2015 is not likely to end just yet. I do, however, suspect that these whipsaws are the death struggles of a bull market, but this view will remain only a suspicion until further evidence is produced.

For the record, I recently closed a gold short and now look to re-establish the short once I see indications that last Friday's low will not represent a weekly cycle low. I also established an equity long today in the form of Nasdaq futures.


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