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October 28, 2008

Bottom Fishing

Just a quick note here. I'm still on a mini-vacation and will be heading out shortly. The market is really dragging out its testing process of the October 10 low. We are going to explode in one direction or another in the not-too-distant future. If I had to guess the direction it would be UP, but its only a mental speculation. I have no money resting on that view. If not for high volatility premiums, straddling the S&P 500 here would be a strong prospect. As I mentioned before, there will be plenty of coin to be had once the market decides on direction. I'm willing to give up the first chunk of any move in exchange for higher probability trades.

We also have a Fed decision coming tomorrow afternoon. We'll probably learn the answer to direction shortly after their announcement. Until then, the market is likely to do very little... perhaps a bit of an upside bias if history is any guide. Keep it safe, and I'll see you all after the FOMC meeting.


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