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June 3, 2009

Bull Market in Yields

There is not a heck of a lot to add to market views after today's action. Precious metals keep edging up (silver is now over $16 in overnight trading), and stocks continue to frustrate the hell out of bears by not dropping even when conditions are extremely overbought. Really, everything depends on how the dollar behaves out of the current pivot zone:

dollar index chart

If the December low fails, it will be quite ominous. If the October low fails, precious metals will be off to the races, bonds will likely suffer in commiseration with the dollar, and the US of A will suffer in commiseration with bonds. Ugh. I don't even want to think about the problems we will face in that scenario.

Treasury yield chart

A bull market in yields will not be pleasant considering its onset is occurring during a deepening depression, but such are the consequences of our government's policies. It was inevitable that the market enforce discpline, and since we didn't take the medicine in free market form, we get to take it the hard way.

Okay, I'm keeping it short tonight. I will leave you with a rather cheesy video produced during our last major credit crisis.

See you all tomorrow.


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