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March 5, 2009

Crude Awakening

I've received a few e-mails about what I see in oil and copper. Honestly, it is nothing spectacular... simply a hunch derived from the monthly charts that we could see a large counter-trend rally in industrial commodities presently. From a market psychology standpoint, just about no one expects a big industrial commodity rally at this point, which adds a level of comfort to the trade. If their prices can get some traction, the herd will rush in to follow, and I'll sell to 'em.

monthly oil chart

monthly copper chart

It also seems to me that precious metals may do the unexpected by finally playing out the previously-anticipated final leg down.

monthly gold chart

I am a little less certain of the precious metals call and, in fact, still hold some silver contracts long. The daily charts will tell me whther to exercise caution (i.e. sell the silver), but in either case, I intend to hold my miners (SLW and GDX) through think and thin. The positions are moderate at this point, and I know they will be multiples of the currents prices down the road. Any retreats in prices will be used to build the positions.


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