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June 29, 2005

Curiosity Kills the Cat

There were two curious moves in the equity markets today, one more so than the other. First, we saw Google drop a 10-spot today, even though the Composite was more or less flat. I have repeated recently that I’d like to see failure in this bellwether spec stock to confirm the next leg down in the anticipated bear market. Whether today’s move is the start of such a failure or just another strong consolidation day like we saw earlier in the month will not be known until a few more trading days are under the belt.

The more curious move today belongs to the miners. Pan American Silver gained 2.5%, Newmont Mining gained 2.9%, and Placer Dome gained 3.6%, and Barrick Gold gained 4.5%. Why is this so curious? Because the underlying metals didn’t post gains today. Silver dropped a few cents and the yellow metal was essentially flat. I don’t see a way to rationalize the equity moves today, so if anyone has an idea, please write in.

After hours saw some fireworks with an earnings release by Research in Motion. I held my short into this release because my impression of the mood on the street was that of growing disdain for this company. Unless they posted spectacular numbers, I thought, the stock would most likely sink. Well, that appears to be the case. RIMM is down almost 7% in after-hours trading. Although bears like myself feel glum right now, we have to remember the action around their last earnings release. RIMM dropped $5 to $69 in after-hours trading along with the release only to close the next trading day over $76. Tomorrow’s action should be fun to watch.

Disclosure: Long PAAS, Short RIMM


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