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March 3, 2014

Dollar Cycle Fails

On Friday, the dollar index formed a failed daily cycle early in its daily cycle count, signaling near-term trouble for the buck.

Despite today's firmness, the dollar index is slated, within cycle methodology, to continue its decline for several more weeks.

A failed daily cycle is also evidence of a weekly cycle in decline. Since the dollar's weekly cycle already sports a late count, this daily cycle is likely to host the terminal phase of a weekly cycle decline. Furthermore, the terminal phase of a weekly cycle decline tends to entail several weeks of sharp selling.

Over the next few weeks, I therefore expect the dollar to plunge through the DX 79 pivot, heading into a weekly cycle low sometime in late March. However, the buck is also due for a 3-year cycle low in the first half of 2014. Whether the coming weekly cycle low will also constitute a 3-year cycle low remains to be determined, but either way, the second half of the year is likely to host a huge dollar rally as the buck bounces out of a major low.

This latter prognostication may not be welcomed by gold bulls nor commodity buffs, but the cyclical view is clear. Furthermore, a major cycle low is due for the commodity complex in 2015, so a dollar rally into next year fits the general framework of expectations.

 

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