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March 30, 2010

Fizzled Again

Despite yesterday's 3% rally in silver and some promising overnight action in the dollar and metals, the gold rally fizzled once again in today's action. When an asset is ready to make a substantial trending move such as the parabolic runs we've been stalking in precious metals, price usually won't be shy about its intentions. Therefore, the continued misfires by gold during technical setups that support a launch are certainly not a supportive indication.

In any case, the primary headwind to a gold rally remains the dollar:

us dollar rally

Mining shares are not providing positive signs, either.

xau to gold ratio

On a positive note, industrial commodities like copper and gasoline probably wouldn't still be hanging near rally highs if the markets were about to experience a new, deflationary event. In my opinion, gold will follow those commodities to new highs as soon as the dollar finishes working out the end to its countertrend rally. I know its the same tune being sung as several weeks ago, but macro events unfold much more slowly than we impatient traders would like.


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