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August 31, 2006


Watching the stock market on a day like today is about as drab as it gets, which is why I didn't spend much time doing so. The indices flat-lined until about the last hour and a half when they managed to sputter upwards for a bit and then tail off into the close. Given the day's extremely narrow trading range, trying to read anything into the weak close would be folly. Traditionally, the last week of August tends to be either disastrous or completely non-eventful. I wonder why they don't just declare the week an annual market holiday. Of course, the players who took my money on Lam Research yesterday would probably differ.

Given the quiescence in stocks, today's move in silver stuck out like a sore thumb. Another 3% rise has run the white metal to within a whisper of $13 and sent Pan American Silver shares soaring to a new summer high. One has to doubt, though, whether this is the move. I still intend to hold fast to my play book, which calls for waiting for another sharp pull-back in metals before getting aggressive. Psychologically-speaking, it would make the most sense to have another wash of weak hands before commencing a big run. Technical views back up this expectation. As you can see below, PAAS shares have been losing momentum, and silver's chart shows similar divergences.

stock chart

It would be hard to manufacture a market environment any more boring than what we witnessed today, but I'm sure they'll give it a try tomorrow.

Disclosure: None


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