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September 25, 2008

Fogo de Chao

My excuse for a late posting this evening is not the weather, although it is damn fine tonight in Atlanta. Nope, one of my closest friends had, until this evening, been deprived of the experience of gorging himself at a churrascuria. So I treated him to dinner at Fogo de Chao. Of course, what are two buddies going to do after stuffing their guts full of finely roasted carnage than smoke cigars, sip whiskey, and talk about women, the good 'ol days, and how much better the world would be without the corruption roosting atop our government?

Okay, on to the stuff you readers care about. The S&P 500 did not carve out the candle I was looking for to trigger aggressive short positions in my accounts.

index chart

Today's session gave me the distinct impression that the rally would extend itself a bit before inflecting lower to test last week's lows. Glancing at the midnight numbers, however, I see the SPX futures sinking nearly 2%. It was certainly not the disappointing earnings from Research in Motion that knocked the market because the interim after the report saw the futures only marginally lower. I'm guessing the big news is the seizure of Washington Mutual. Are J.P. Morgan and Bank of America going to own everything before this is over? I'm willing to bet WaMu's failure will induce a workout of the bailout package presently.

Of course, the futures are doing nothing but erasing what they gained earlier today, so I'm not terribly disturbed (yet) about not being heavily short. The minor short positions I opened on XHB and CF Industries should provide some pocket change if the hit to index futures holds overnight.

stock chart

I'm also thinking it may be time for precious metals to see a minor pullback

silver chart

Although I had planned to fade the first big rally in metals, I find myself suddenly reticent to do so. Silver looks like it will get at least minor support at $12.50... only 75c below... and platinum looks like it just began an explosive move I don't want to fight.

platinum chart

So the drama continues. I anticipate quite a bit of volatility tomorrow as people position themselves for the weekend. Oh, and Ted, if you're reading this... you owe me about 14 steak dinners by now. Charge up a lush evening at Cafe Ronda next time I'm in the city, and we'll call it even.


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