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March 25, 2009

Getting Sentimental

Wednesday greeted equity players with a roller coaster ride that kept both bulls and bears on edge. Opinions about near-term market direction seem to be about as polar as they've ever been, and the market action reflected the sentiment by printing a spinner for a candle:

stock index chart

The facts that two support lines held and price finished higher on an uptick in volume is bullish. The SPX also appears to be forming a crawl along the 65DMA, which would suggest an imminent thrust higher, despite overly bullish sentiment:

stock market indicator

stock market indicator

stock market indicator

So which to believe? Price patterns or sentiment indicators? My opinion is that in cases like this, one should not have an opinion. I'm just sticking with my longs in precious metals and energy and leaving the general market to those with either more insight or a foolish appetite for risk.

There is not much to be said for the charts of precious metals themselves. What I do see is that mining shares continue to perform well even when the metals are weak, and this behavior alone is enough to keep me bullish. Until I see convincing evidence otherwise, I intend to hold my miners and silver futures and even seek excuses to push my positions.


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