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March 2, 2010

Getting There

Gold and gold miners followed silver's recent breakout by moving to new highs for the rally out of February. The moves are an important confirmation and put precious metals assets one step closer to igniting the parabolic run we have been stalking since last fall.

Gold daily price chart

Gold miners rally

Silver rallied a healthy 3%, probably playing catch-up after being so sorely beaten during the correction. I believe gold and miners will follow suit as soon as traders that got juked out of their positions during the correction are induced into chasing the rally. Perhaps that tipping point will occur when gold takes out its next pivot around $1160 or when the buck finally cracks lower.

dollar index rally failure

Personally, I believe all the folks who think the euro cannot rally are about to be surprised. It's hard to say when these breaks will occur. I've always noted that markets tend to use news, not as a reason for action, but as an excuse to do what they wanted to do in the first place. With a jobs report being published Friday morning, we have a target event, but perhaps the markets will attach to some other event before then.

I have maintained, despite the wiggles and shakes, that a parabolic run in precious metals is still in the works. To this point the markets have not negated the outlook... only tested our patience to the extreme.


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