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March 28, 2010

Gold Haze

The big reversals in the dollar and gold threw our near-term outlooks into a bit of a haze, but the intermediate views for a big decline in the buck and a big rise in gold remain intact. The key right now is simply one of seeing follow-thru... or not. Basically, once gold cracks one level or another, we will have our answer, and I see no reason to commit capital until the market betrays its hand.

Gold rally

Interestingly, I plan to be a buyer of either event. I have no problem giving up another $25 of a gold run when I expect the whole rally to span almost $300. If the lower event plays out, I will wait for a panic day or swing low, not just a violation of the pivot.

The stock market is being a bit of a stickler about its correction, which is no big surprise considering the force of the rally. I have a hard time seeing it go truly parabolic without at least one shakeout event, so perhaps a correction plays out quickly, as in one or two days.

S&P 500 correction

It would be nice to a quick left hook to stocks so I can conveniently re-establish some mining positions, but in any case, I am basing my next moves on the gold action.


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