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February 18, 2009

Graphless and Listless

Tonight will feature one of my rare graphless posts. There is really not much to add to yesterday's write-up, so if you're looking for detail, witticisms, or fodder for repartee, go back and reread Tuesday's post. As for today, I'll say this: if not for opex coming this Friday, I would stand confidently in predicting a visit of the November low tomorrow. The daily and intraday SPX charts are screaming for another big sell-off. Please take heed of the caveat (there always is one) that the days leading into opex are typically ripe for pattern-busting behavior.

Options expiration, in fact, is just another factor keeping my position size unusually small these days. I have been, unfortunately, too small in my shorts over a 90-handle drop in the SPX. However, I do have a road map for a bigger decline which includes a back-test of the 805 breakdown level after a test of the November low. Such a move should draw enough bulls into the double-bottom camp (an inane concept, if you ask me) to allow for a larger decline to unfold. If the action unfolds as such, I will be ready to pile on with bigger bets.

Precious metals are an irresistable force. I took the cathartic move of purchasing a position in Silver Wheaton today. I first purchased this position at $3.60 and sold it over a month ago at $6.40. Chasing it today at $7.30 was nothing more than a release. I am mostly convinced now that precious metals are in the midst of one of their routine springtime blow-offs. I am holding back from piling on the silver contracts only to see how gold behaves as it approaches its high. If price gets rejected strongly, I will hesistate in my entry. However, if price lingers at the old high like it's ready to burst through, I will go ahead and stack the chips.

That's it for tonight. I'll leave any clarifications to the comments section.


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