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May 1, 2009

Hack Job

For the record, I closed the portion of my short position (a little less than half of my current position) that was put back on yesterday. First of all, the follow-thru this morning was weak. It almost feels as if the market is trying to goad bears into pressing their shorts before a nasty pop materializes. Besides, the fact that we didn't have a big gap down tells me there are already too many bear claws grasping the tape. Shake them off with a rally, then we can head down.

Second, the SPX has quite a mess to hack through if it is to retreat:

index intraday chart

So this portion of my short line was closed ahead of the Fed at ES 872, re-established at ES 881, and closed again at ES 866. Admittedly, I'm a bit more active than usual with this type of play, but the market is hacking out quite a complicated top, and such action warrants caution. These maneuvers were intended to limit risk, not game the market.

I didn't mention precious metals in last night's post. Mainly, I don't have a feel for the short-term prospects, and unfortunately, I think that's what most people seek when reading blogs. I am currently in investment mode with regard to metals. I really don't care what they do in the short-term. I have a line that will enable me to weather a large drop and ignore the petty gyrations we've seen recently. I am entirely convinced that silver will see a three-digit price before the bull is over, so why trade in and out trying to catch a buck or two move when an 8-bagger lies ahead?


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