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July 1, 2009

Holiday Action

It's going to be another brief post since I do not have access to my regular workstation due to my move. Likewise, I will have to apologize for the lack of visual aids. Not much is likely to happen tomorrow since we are heading into a long weekend, but I will take advantage of said long weekend to contruct a more detailed post.

One interesting point from today's action came from crude oil which followed energy-related equities in breaking a bear flag. As expected, the break above apparent resistance two days ago turned out to be a bull trap. The door is now open for an accelerated decline into the low $50s. If oil breaks hard, so will equities. They've been taking their sweet time about it, but the S&P 500 is still holding below 930, the level which would nullify the near-term bearish case. Due to the holiday-shortened week, I suspect we will see another low-volume, narrow-range session tomorrow. Ideally, the action will paint a bearish bias, but either way, as long as SPX 930 continues to reject price on a closing basis, I'll be looking for a hard break any day.

Precious metals managed a bounce, and gold miners responded with a 4% rally. I refuse to let go of my substantial positions in the PM sector and am willing to withstand further drawdown. The reason is that these things could explode at any time given the macroeconomic backdrop. If the action happens to conform with cyclical expectations, I will then take the occasion to really push my bets.

Okay, see you this weekend with some third quarter outlooks.


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