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October 15, 2014

How is the TrendBands Fund Handling October?

As I begin this post, the S&P 500 is down 6.66% for the month. How is the hypothetical TrendBands Fund performing during this market meltdown, you may ask? Well, the Fund is up exactly 13 basis points. A nice glob of short positions, including a few big names that were added the week ending October 3, actually has the Fund net short about 12%.

The largest short position, GDX, is rising along with gold, so I am glad to see the remaining shorts are pulling more than their weight to keep the Fund even. Interestingly, none of the longs are currently threatened with getting knocked off, though this status will certainly change with further market weakness.

I also expect a few more technical shorts will be triggered this week, and I will announce those positions to Members on Friday when they are confirmed and executed. So overall, I am pleased with how the experiment is handling a market drop.

In the meantime, my research and experimentation never stops. I believe I have at least partially solved an important trend-following riddle: how to avoid getting whipsawed multiple times before catching a trend. This technique would have negated or delayed just about every long-side entry in which the Fund has so far indulged. Current trades will obviously stand, but the new technique will be applied going forward.


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