Gary Savage is fond of quoting: in a bull market, surprises come to the upside. There is one asset that keeps surprising to the upside with frustrating persistence: the dollar. The DX chart has set up nicely for a strong fall and then surged back higher so many times over the last month as to be reminiscent of a"> Gary Savage is fond of quoting: in a bull market, surprises come to the upside. There is one asset that keeps surprising to the upside with frustrating persistence: the dollar. The DX chart has set up nicely for a strong fall and then surged back higher so many times over the last month as to be reminiscent of a" />

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March 19, 2010

In a Bull Market...

There is an old saying of mine, which Gary Savage is fond of quoting: in a bull market, surprises come to the upside. There is one asset that keeps surprising to the upside with frustrating persistence: the dollar. The DX chart has set up nicely for a strong fall and then surged back higher so many times over the last month as to be reminiscent of a Rocky fight, to borrow the simile dowoper8tr provided in comments. In fact, after marginally forming a weekly swing high, price has surged back and now threatens to form a weekly swing low with any follow-thru next week. Such action would promise higher highs for the buck in the near future, which certainly would be detrimental to our outlook for a big run in precious metals.

A weekly swing low would leave behind a 16-week, extremely right-translated cycle. At that point, the only hope for near-term prospects for a run in metals would be for the impending intermediate cycle to fail. Such a development would actually swing prospects strongly back in favor of PM holders because we could then look forward to 3-4 months of declining dollar action rather than 5-6 weeks. However, given the indefatigable strength in the dollar and the current right-translated cycle, I wouldn't put a high probability on this outcome.

Continued strength in the buck seems to have pretty good odds based on the action in equities, as well. With this morning's drop, the SPX seems almost certain of leaving a daily swing high in place.

s&p 500 daily chart

Since stocks are way overdue for a correction, this swing has pretty good odds of marking the beginning of a retreat. We will need to see the SPX hold its 65DMA during any correction in order to keep the bullish case alive.

 

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