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April 22, 2014

Inside Information

TrendBands™ Say Oil Is Going Lower

Here is a sneak peak at a primary technical indicator I developed and utilize within my cycle analysis of various commodities and stock indexes. The red and green lines shown on oil's chart below are TrendBands. TrendBands, as the name suggests, deliver a mathematical definition of an uptrend or downtrend. A break above the UpperBand (UB) signifies an uptrend for price a long as price remains above the LowerBand (LB). A break below the LB signifies a downtrend for as long as price remains below the UB. Therefore, despite the close below the UB today, oil remains locked within a daily uptrend.

Whether that uptrend will persevere is open for debate, however, because TrendBands have another, powerful use. UB and LB breaks often signify important cyclical changes before those changes can be otherwise identified. One such use can be see on today's candle. A close back below the daily UB usually indicates a daily cycle has commenced its primary decline and so is heading into a low.

Given that crude oil is approaching the front end of its 1.5 to 2.5-month timing band for a daily cycle low, I expect this UB encroachment to signal a cycle decline. Oil should therefore head lower at least through the end of April, but possibly through most of May.

Whether the daily LB supports this decline is also meaningful. A close beneath the LB would signify that oil's weekly cycle is also in decline, sending price lower for perhaps three months. More details on the use of TrendBands can be found within the Member Letter.


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