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February 19, 2009

It's a Bear Market, Theoretically

You're welcome. A couple days ago, I intimated that as soon as I purchased a token SLW position, we would see our first significant pull-back in the precious metals rally. And so we did. A 2% fee on the savings of your next purchase will be sufficient for the service. Payments can be conveniently made to my Paypal account! In the meantime, I'll be keeping an eye on the nature of this pause to determine if and when to load up for the annual spring blow-out.

Some cool stuff happened today, so let's dig in. For the first time since the 2002 low, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below 7,500:

stock index chart

I really don't think it will be long before the S&P 500 does the same. I mean, can anyone find anything bullish on this chart?

stock index chart

We have also seen nothing in the way of buying-on-weakness to counteract the heavy selling seen over the last two weeks. The only possible bullish spin one can place on this action is that we've now seen four consecutive down days. Somehow, saying that the near-term outlook is bullish because the market has fallen four days in a row just doesn't hold too much sway in my thinking.

stock market indicator

stock market indicator

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treasury bond chart

stock index chart

I'm holding my shorts into opex, but given the relative strength of tech and the impending extreme reading on advance-decline volume, I intend to lighten up if we reach SPX 740. My game plan for getting aggressively short entails a back-test of SPX 805 after tagging the November low.


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