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September 8, 2008

Just a Thought

When the pickings look easy, they usually aren't. I've spent the morning looking for an analysis that would counter the immediate meltdown hypothesis that bears are professing all over the blogs this weekend. I was more successful than I hoped I would be. Here is a picture of an Elliott Wave analysis I posted a couple weeks ago:

elliott wave

We were basically looking for a C wave extension of the upward correction out of July to complete the consolidation and set up the next big leg down. The C wave should have extended to somewhere between 1314 to 1374 on the SPX. However, we have a problem: price never even reached the minimum target. This dilemma leaves us with the possibility that last week's sharp decline was nothing more than the completion of the B wave, and implies that the C wave is now underway:

index chart

The massively oversold reading on MACD certainly does not counter the possibility of a big rally forming here, and if price were to extend well into the 1300s from here, the tremendous confidence exuding from bearish blogs would certainly turn sour and chase enough bearishness out of sentiment to allow for a larger decline.


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