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November 10, 2013

Major Commodity Cycle Threatens to Turn Bearish

Commodity bulls may be destined for another round of pain in 2014. The CRB has moved to within a few points of its 2012 low, a pivot representing a 3-year cycle low for the commodity complex. With a move below that level, the current 3-year cycle will fail, projecting commodities lower for several more quarters.

The 3-year commodity cycle actually runs between 2.5-3 years. Still, a failure at this point would require 12-18 months of further downside into the next multi-year cycle low. The chances of such a failure seem to be high since testing a cycle low halfway through the next cycle is highly unusual.

As discussed in the Member Letter, several commodities such as cotton, coffee, and most importantly, oil, are deep within their own weekly cycle counts. These commodities should soon produce rallies, so the CRB may make a final attempt to defend the 2012 low. But once that low gives way, commodity traders should be mentally prepared for a weak year.


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