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June 18, 2009

Miners Slugged

Feeling better, everyone. Thanks for the well wishes. Well, I think there is a chance we've see our bounce already. Yesterday's BoW figure was washed away with $283M of SoS today. Also, a wave count off the June 11 high put us in a good position to make the lunge toward the 65DMA.

stock index chart

If the count is valid, we should now see a 5-wave move down to 880 or so. At that point, I would cover shorts and wait for confirmation that we will have a larger 5-wave decline rather than an A-B-C correction. It certainly would not be beyond the perniciousness of the market gods to make another lunge at the rally highs just to shake people off the easy money train that will come with the next plunge.

In the commodity world, natural gas coughed up some gains, but I won't be worried unless price performs an end run of the triangle.

natural gas prices

Precious metals did nothing noteworthy today, but miners managed to get slugged. Given the tendency of the shares to lead the commodities, it would seem that the prognostication for a longer consolidation is accurate. However, keep an eye on the dollar. The rally off the test of the December low is thus far uninspiring.

dollar index

That's it for tonight. I'll post a larger chart review over the weekend.

 

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