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June 9, 2010

More Rainfall

To borrow from a repartee in the comments section, we got a nice bit of rain today to re-moisten the waterfall, and the more I peer at equity charts, the more I believe we're in for more near-term slippage. After all, recent action has done nothing but relieve oversold conditions without taking price anywhere. However, I believe any impending weakness will be limited by a fairly reliable support level on the weekly chart.

S&P 500 weekly moving average

Our waterfall is not likely to register on the Niagara scale, but a quick drop to the 75WMA... especially if we get a marginal break below the MA and print a three-digit SPX quote... should soil enough briefs to set a powerful upside reversal in motion. For reasons described in the Member letter, I do not expect the impending bounce to better the April high, but it should be strong enough to set up an excellent shorting opportunity for those so inclined.


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