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July 7, 2008

Morning Observations

The world has finally woken up to relief on the energy price front. Crude is slumping five bucks a barrel as I type. Gasoline futures are off almost 10c, and natural gas is off a whopping 53c. The reaction from equities is rather tepid considering the sizes of these drops, with the S&P 500 up barely a half percent... a bit disappointing for those of us who would like to get short.

It's hard to say what is knocking oil this morning. A Bloomberg headlines credit soft talk from Iran, but I don't buy that for a second. Only action with regard to the Iran situation... a situation that has been manufactured, I have to add... would really matter to the energy markets. The headline is just another case of a poor journalist trying to connect dots.

The U.S. Dollar Index is up a bit, which could certainly be contributing to the weakness in all commodities this morning. Apart from energy, precious metals are slumping 2-3%, copper is off over 3%, sugar is down 2%, and grains are down 3-4%.

I've hit the cruise control button on my trading day... just sitting back to make sure these inital price moves are not all head fakes. I feel like a spear fisherman standing over murky water. I know there are a lot of fish, but I'm waiting for a moment of clarity to strike.


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