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August 18, 2009

Narrow Range Chop Session

Not a lot happened in today's chop session, so it's going to be a short post. For the most part, we are looking at a narrow-range consolidation on the stock charts, which portends a continuation of the downside action in the next few days.

s&p 500 chart

Narrow-range consolidations tend to produce follow-through moves within 1-3 days, so by the end of the week, we should see another tall, red candle. I suspect that SPX 950 will provide a bounce, especially if the 65DMA is converging with that pivot at the time of the test.

Unfortunately, without some sort of event, precious metals are likely to move lower along with stocks. I continue to position myself long PMs / short stocks with a weighting toward PMs. I suspect that either way, metals will outperform stocks, and if we see the appropriate catalyst, stocks will move lower while PMs rally. It's really just a waiting game now apart from a few hit-and-run trades.


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