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January 7, 2009

Non-Correlations

What a strange day. Everything was down at the same time. Despite money leaking out of bonds, stocks fell hard. Despite the pounding endured by the buck, commodities tanked. Oil fell six bucks (nice job, dowoper8tr), and I was obviously overly-cautious in closing my gold short last night. Given the same situation, however, I'd make the same decision.

gold chart

Someone... I don't know who... mentioned yesterday that the break of the double loop ending pattern on the SPX intraday chart would initially project the index to about 912.50:

stock intraday chart

Also notice how the magic of the 65DMA contained today's losses:

stock chart

As with the March to May rally, the current countertrend move will likely creep back below the 65DMA before completing its journey higher. This is just a WAG (that's a wild-ass guess for the uninitiated), but a pull-back to 850 followed by a final leg up to 1050 makes sense to me. However, I can't keep that extreme put/call ratio out of my mind. In any case, the market should give us some strong clues if we are, indeed, slipping into a new major bear leg. For example, volume would begin to accelerate on down days.

I don't discuss individual stocks very often, mostly because I tend not to bother with them. However, once in a while, when I see something juicy, I will dabble just to keep my edge on. Recently, the chart of Autozone has had the allure of a rare steak:

stock chart

And if it works out, a rare steak is exactly what I'll buy with the profits.

 

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