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June 13, 2016

Oil Cycles Suggest Higher Prices to Come

I find the psychology around this year's oil action amusing, though typical. As crude declined to sub-$30 pricing, all we heard was talk about how the decline could extend no further. Once we saw price recover the $30 mark, the banter turned to how the latest rally was a false rally. Such false-rally talk continues today with oil recently above $50... nearly double the February low. Quite the false rally, I would say.

Given that oil's weekly cycles typically run 25-33 weeks, the current cycle has locked in a right-translated nature. So once price declines into the next weekly cycle low, the subsequent cycle should rally to new highs. But has the current weekly cycle even finished its ascent?

Oil's daily cycle will likely decline in coming sessions to seek a daily cycle low under the upper TrendBand. However, the cycle is clearly right-translated and so should give way to higher highs in the next daily cycle.

In fact, with up to 15 weeks remaining for oil's weekly cycle to play out, price has plenty of time to form another RT daily cycle before heading into a weekly cycle low. Of course, we cannot predict whether this weekly cycle will contain one or two more daily cycles, but either way, the cycle configuration does suggest new highs before a weekly cycle decline, and even further highs in the subsequent weekly cycle.

 

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