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December 16, 2005

Option Play

Today's market were rather dull, even for an options expiration day. The only big movers of note were Research in Motion, which dropped a couple bucks in what appeared to be simply volatility, and oil, which also shed a couple bucks and brought down energy-related stocks with it.

The shinies also halted their slides, at least for now. Gold bounced off the $500 mark and silver off $8.29… both levels which, several days ago, I guessed would provide support. I still will not endorse guessing as a valid trading strategy, though!

Since this Friday's action, like last Friday's, induced piercing somnolence, let's wrap up the week by revisiting updated versions of the four charts I posted last Friday.

Gold was right… the next move in the dollar was down. Now how low do we go? Is the dollar also correctly signaling an imminent drop in equities?

US Dollar Graph

Meanwhile gold took a little spill as traders locked in quick profits. I suspect gold has one more spike left in it for this move. It would make most sense for such a spike to occur in conjunction with a serious stock market drop, and the baton will finally be taken from equities and handed to the world of commodities.

gold chart

Oil broke its short-term downward trend line, but this week produced a bearish hammer, forcing us to question the validity of the break-out.

crude oil chart

BMHC went sideways, and we still await direction.

stock chart

Happy Holidays.

Disclosure: Short BMHC


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