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June 4, 2015

Out of Hibernation

After shutting down my paid newsletter back in February, I had every intention of remaining active on the public blog, but I had not realized just how burned out I had become from the daily effort to scribe market observations. A hiatus was necessary and welcomed. Finally, however, the writing itch has reemerged and overcome me. I make no promises of posting frequently here, but I do hope to reengage the fine community that called themselves Members.

Gold was always a favorite topic of readers and will be the focus of this return post. Unfortunately for those who seek cheerleading with regard to gold's price behavior, the current setup does not appear to be too bright. The daily chart:

A close below the LB on the daily chart tends to indicate that the weekly cycle is on its way into an intermediate-degree low. Of course, the previous daily cycle produced a small close below the LB and then recovered, but the current cycle looks much weaker given that the cycle is threatening to fail. Once that $1168 low gives way, we will have a confirmed weekly cycle decline.

Given an intermediate-degree decline, the picture gets even uglier:

A Week 9 peak assures a left-translated nature to the cycle, and as you can see, the previous intermediate low is only about $35 below. So that $1168 level is key, as a failed daily cycle cascades into weakness on the higher time frame. Gold may then see second panic sell so many of us cycle proponents have anticipated.

Related positions: Short silver

 

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