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April 30, 2008

Reverse Course

Somewhere buried deep within the trader's Constitution is the right to change one's mind on a dime. It is a right rarely exercised since it is emotionally difficult to admit fault in one's idea. Great traders do it all the time and for seemingly petty reasons. George Soros would dump or even reverse a position because his back ached, for example.

I am changing my mind about the near-term direction of the stock market. In recent posts, I've been pounding the table for higher prices. We've been getting them, but I do not like the behavior of price around the 1400 SPX level. For several days, it has seemed like traders were holding back, cautious of the Fed actually keeping rates firm rather than cutting 25bp. However, when the Fed delivered 25bp, price only briefly popped above 1400 and was then firmly rejected.

stock chart

So, while I still believe the market will move higher into the elections for all the reasons outlined in Saturday's post, I now expect a pull-back of at least a few days. I have put on a small short position and will get scared out of it only with a move above 1400.


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