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November 8, 2006

Running of the Bulls

If I didn't know any better, I'd say Michael Jordan still played for the bulls. Nasdaq futures put the bears as 9-point favorites shortly before game time. The bulls fell behind early, but held the line until a fantastic second-half surge, the likes of which only a Jordan could architect, put the bulls up 16 points... a 25-point swing from the morning line... and lead to an 8-point victory.

Do the bears have any place left to hang their hats? Perhaps, but it is a small hook. Looking at the intraday chart of the aforementioned NDX, we see a potentially significant bearish divergence on RSI.

stock chart

If some selling can come in to relieve this pressure, we bears can hold our collective breaths and hope the downside becomes contagious. If the NDX manages to close above its January high, however, resuming respiration would be well-advised since the wait for a downswing may cause unwanted side effects such as death.

Looking at a slightly longer view of the SPX, we see the index violated its recent rally line, back-tested it, and now has bearish momentum divergences of its own.

stock chart

The beginning of the four-month rally currently tormenting bears appropriately coincided with the San Fermín festival during which Spaniards herd raging bulls through the streets of small towns, most famously, Pamplona. Anyone standing in the way of this market's bull run has been stampeded or gored. Let's just hope that this running of the bulls ends in much the same way as it does during the Festival... with the bulls getting slaughtered.

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