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August 13, 2009

Same Old Story

Once again, an easy score eluded the grasp of bears. Faced with rejection by an important pivot point and ever-increasing extremes in oscillator readings, stocks managed to break higher exactly at the moment the opposite should have occurred. It's like Michael Irvin sans cocaine... hit him in the hands and he'll still drop the ball. I suppose the only strand of hope bears have to hold at the moment is the repeated rejection of price by the November high on the S&P 500:

s&p 500 daily chart

Some of you might be keen to point out that the SPX closed above the November high last Friday. Keep in mind that technical analysis is an inexact practice. I will not entertain the notion that marginal breaks are significant. What is apparent is that SPX 1010 is trying to reject the advance. The bad news for bears, as dowoper8tr has pointed out in the comments, is there is no significant resistance above SPX 1010 until about 1070, and based on volume, I would view SPX 1128 as a more likely target if this move goes super-parabolic.

In the meantime, precious metals are still coiling for their ultimate breakouts. In fact, silver is already putting in a nice advance this morning, and I'm considering adding to my already-heavy position. Staying long precious metals seems like the highest-probability play here. After all, if the Fed has already monetized heavily enough to keep stocks rolling higher, the resulting inflationary effect will certainly push metals up. On the other hand, if equities hit the skids, Berskanke & Co. will undoubtedly release the helicopter brigade again... also good for precious metals.

Okay, it's been a while since I treated y'all to a chart-laden post, so I promise to delve into more detail on these market views no later than the weekend. Trade well.

 

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