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January 21, 2005

Short Stuff

I have an eerie feeling that I’m not short enough (financially speaking). The equity markets performed another late-day sell-off, closing again at their lows. In conjunction with this slide, metals rallied, with silver up 4% and gold up over 1 percent. The big gain in the metals makes me think the market gods know something. It is my belief that metals will rally and the dollar will collapse when our bubbles start bursting, so maybe this metals rally is a hint. On the other hand, maybe it was just a reflection of Buffet’s anti-dollar comments a couple days ago.

Pan American Silver and Newmont Mining both rallied in harmony with the underlying metals. Their rallies were a mixed blessing. Though I own some PAAS, I was watching for more of a sell-off to add to my position or to buy some silver directly. As noted in a previous article, it is my belief that, in general, one should buy commodities, not commodity stocks.

Tech had the hurt put on it in the late afternoon. After attempting to hold ground through the lunch hour, the Nasdaq composite tanked through the end of the day. Stocks like XMSR, YHOO, INTC, and GOOG produced intraday charts that look like your favorite water slide and the rec park. Investors just didn’t want to be holding into the weekend, and I don’t blame them. Commentaries in today's media give me the impression that everyone is still trying to paint a rosy picture. Any surprises, politically or economically, are more likely to be negative, so why risk being long through the weekend?

As I final note, Pfizer has been participating in the market’s decline. This is a good thing for us hungry vultures waiting for the right time to pounce. It’s hard to imagine that all its troubles are not already priced into the stock price, and the time to begin accumulating may be upon us.

Author’s Disclosure: Long PAAS, Short YHOO, Short INTC


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