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August 27, 2013

Short-Term Gold Forecast

Cycle analysis has given us a pretty good run with our most recent round of gold trading, providing for purchases below the $1300 mark and for additions just under $1350. The current daily cycle is aging, however, so a pull-back is due in the near future.

So where is gold headed in coming weeks? This chart provides a general view of the path being discussed within the Member Letter:

The good news for gold traders is that the current daily cycle's rally has extended long enough to provide the cycle with a right-translated (RT) nature. RT cycles tend to be followed by cycles that set a higher high, so even after the next pull-back, gold should remain in rally mode.

When the current cycle kicked off in early August, I postulated that the rally would make a run at the historically-important 150DMA. Gold is now within a couple percent of that level, and whether gold sets a cycle peak just below or just above that moving average is not important. The key point is that the closer gold moves toward its timing band for a cycle low, the less likely the rally is to have enough power to push decisively through a major resistance level.

However, once the daily cycle resets with a pull-back, gold should have the impetus to push through the 150DMA. We will then turn our sights to $1525... the major pivot that gave way to gold's springtime crash.


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