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August 19, 2005


Since no particularly pertinent news was on the wires today, I'll just lay down a few lines about some of the equities I follow.

The standout today was Research in Motion. RIMM gained a healthy 4.3% in its first move of significance in a month. In absence of the usual taradiddle of ever-bullish analysts, I have to conclude that today's swing was the result of position unwinding on options expiration day. If my hunch is correct, we should see RIMM give up its gains early next week.

Centex, a stock for which my technical model triggered a sell signal yesterday, shed 1% today. Since its peak, CTX is off a whopping 16%. Its counterpart atop the housing giants, Toll Brothers, has given up over 17% of it peak value. I continue to suspect that the top is in for the homeys, and that their slides will accelerate as soon as some sort of catalyst is inflicted upon them.

Best Buy, a stock I am short as an indirect play on the housing story, dropped 2%. Like RIMM, the action could be related to options expiration, but I am more inclined to believe BBY dropped on technical weakness since it is currently in a weak chart pattern.

Intel shed about 1% today and breached the low of 25.73 it hit before launching to its recent high. If this breach proves to be significant, the stock could really start to deteriorate. In any case, the company is toast, as AMD appears to be making strong headway into the market share game.

Speaking of AMD, although I am very bullish on the company longer-term, I am bearish in the short-term on technical indicators. I own a very small put position, but refuse to aggressively short a stock that I'm fundamentally bearish on. The stock was down 1.5% today.

Pfizer hit its lowest point today since March, and is less than 1% off a level at which it would yield 3%. I am looking for opportunities to trade this stock on the long side, but I don't see one, yet.

Finally, Texas Instruments took a 1.7% bath today. The stock is very close to triggering a sell signal in my model, so I will be watching it closely next week, and will likely add to my position if a signal is given.

Disclosure: Short RIMM, CTX, BBY, INTC; Long TOL, INTC, AMD, TXN Puts


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