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August 15, 2005


Apart from the metals getting smacked, the day seemed rather non-eventful, and there were no surprises in the news. Israeli settlers were whining, as expected, over their forced withdrawal from Gaza. The Iraqi constitution is going to be late. And Demi Moore declared officially that Ashton Kutcher is her soul mate. All these market-moving developments had the net effect of pushing equities about a quarter percent higher today.

Back to the metals, I've noticed that Pan American Silver, a mining stock I owned earlier this year, has rallied from the low $14s to the low $16s while the metal itself has made a round trip from around $7 per ounce up to about $7.30 and back down to just under $7. I can only attribute the strength in PAAS to the fact that gold has held onto its gains and perhaps traders expect silver to get moving again shortly.

Last week I began to get the feeling that housing stocks were teetering on edge. The GSEs have been tanking, and continued their slide today. The 10-year note has, with the exception of Thursday and Friday last week, been trending downward. The charts of the homeys are also looking technically weak… more so than in April. Finally, many reports are surfacing from around the country about burgeoning home inventories and aggressive price cutting to move houses. I'm trying to run scenarios through my head to figure out what could save the rally at this stage. If anyone has some insight, please let me know.

Disclosure: None.


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