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September 22, 2009

So Far, So Good

The buck got slammed for a nice 1% drop today after priming itself for panic selling as described in yesterday's post. I'm expecting 2-3 more days of sharp dollar dumping, likely down to the 74 pivot on the DX. However, since we're sitting right on top of the 76 pivot and there is an FOMC announcement tomorrow, we should be prepared to see out panic aborted.

dollar chart

Fed blabber is a force that could prevent the dollar from tumbling quickly down to the next pivot. If we see 76 held on a closing basis... and especially if we are dealt a daily reversal... we may have to submit to an early entry into the dollar's consolidation rally. Until I see such signs, however, I am holding fast with my trade.

Neither the metals nor equities were up as fatly as I expected given a sharp daily drop in the dollar, but perhaps traders in those markets are apprehensive over the Fed meeting. A lot should be cleared up for us after 2:15p tomorrow.


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