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September 10, 2009

Stalking a Dollar Bottom

There is not a whole lot to add to Tuesday's commentary from the action of the last two sessions. The dollar is behaving more or less as anticipated, and we still await a day or two of panic selling to conclude the 5th wave down. The buck's weakness has driven equities to reverse yet another bearish break out of a coil pattern, and each successive up day has come on higher volume. Today's rally was halted right at the October 2008 reaction high. It's a nice setup for a short squeeze to be triggered with any further strength.

Another interesting development in the S&P 500 is the potential conquest of the 75WMA;

weekly S&P 500 chart

Shorting a break above the 75WMA might not be the best idea in the world, but if we get a short squeeze and a swing low in the buck, I might be tempted. However, I'm still not interested in attempting a serious short book until the 65DMA is lost. This latter rule has certainly saved the Docfolio quite a bit of coin recently.

Precious metal posted nice reversals today, pointing to higher prices near-term. Should the dollar print one of the expected panic days, we could see gold finally vaulted above the $1000 mark.


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