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June 2, 2013

State of the Commodity Bull

The commodity bull market appears to be in jeopardy of suffering a failed 3-year cycle. After a rambunctious rally out of last year's 3-year cycle low that saw the CRB race 20% higher in under four months, commodities have been mired in a 9-month slump. Such an extended downtrend is very unusual so early in a 3-year cycle, at least if the cycle were going to develop bullishly.

A failed cycle is not yet sealed, but we can take some clues from commodity bellwethers. Of key interest is the fate of oil's current weekly cycle. As described in the Member Letter, failed weekly cycles for oil typically do not occur until the 3-year commodity cycle rolls over. So if oil's current correction takes price below the $84 mark, a bearish omen for commodities would be in hand.

As you can see, oil has been coiling within a huge triangle consolidation and more recently, within an expanding wedge. A visit to the lower bound of either would produce a move below $84.

A currency which holds a strong correlation to the health of the commodity bull, the Canadian Dollar, also formed a huge triangle consolidation, but has already broken bearishly out of that formation.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollar charts contain bearish markers, as well. Of course, no interpretations are ever set in stone, but the tea leaves are certainly providing reason for caution at the moment. By no means do I believe the commodity bull has completed, but remember that if a 3-year cycle fails, generally lower prices would then be expected into the next cycle low, due in late-2014 or early-2015.


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