Today's move is important, however, because if equities are beginning a daily cycle decline, they will be leaving behind a Day 15 peak. A peak before Day 20 almost always results in a left-translated and failed cycle. That said, the previous daily cycle delivered an exception.
So you can see that an early peak does not guarantee a failed daily cycle, but such behavior still strongly suggests a bearish outcome.
Nevertheless, one down day does not confirm a daily cycle in decline. Since the current daily cycle does not possess a well-defined trend line by which to judge a cycle decline, I will be relying on my statistical trend system to provide an early indication of a trend change.
The weekly equity view does suggest that an intermediate-degree decline is due, implying that the current daily cycle should fail. Furthermore, equities are overdue for a yearly cycle decline.
Almost no one is looking for a 200-handle plunge by the S&P 500 in coming weeks. Cycle theory, however, suggests that such a decline is not only possible, but likely. I do not trade on suggestion, but I will be watching very closely for concrete trade triggers within my methodology in order to initiate a short position.