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June 29, 2015

Stocks and Gold Further Declines

As a follow-up to my June 8 posting, we can see that gold and equities remain under duress from intermediate cycle declines.

The low for the current cycle has so far appeared on Day 15, so we should expect the cycle to extend and complete its failure. Gold's weekly cycle just began Week 15. The odds therefore strongly favor seeing yet another failed daily cycle after the present one completes.

You will also note that gold's overnight crisis premium fizzled quickly, quite a bearish sign for the yellow metal. I suspect that once markets put the current bout of drama in the waste bin, we'll see gold dive into an ICL as equities rebound. Speaking of which...

Stocks certainly took a circuitous route to deliver the inevitable, but here we are with a failed daily cycle in hand. At Day 37 (and Week 37), I suspect an ICL will be found rather quickly. A standard daily cycle runs no more than 45 days, so we should print a low by the end of next week. Given the July 5 Greek referendum, I see a strong chance for that even to coincide with a low.

Keep in mind, however, that the referendum can produce a low either by delivering good news or acting as the catalyst for a final panic. So I wouldn't gamble on the outcome. I expect the final low to fall between SPX 2000 (the 75WMA) and SPX 2040 (the lower, weekly TrendBand).

I am currently short gold while trading around SPX futures.


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