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July 28, 2005

Transitional Phase

Today’s action was pretty boring. Only a couple items to note. First, silver was up about 2%. There was no apparent news driving the metal. Perhaps it was related to position unwinding as the August contract is phased out. I still expect silver to go mostly sideways until the Fed decides to stop raising rates.

A possible scenario pooped into my head today as I was contemplating the similarities between 2005 and 1987. Perhaps the markets roll over in mid-August. They trend downward until October at which point we experience some sort of systemic crisis. Stocks tank. The Fed comes to the rescue by printing money, thereby causing metals prices to soar. Just a thought. Probably won’t happen since I wrote it.

I shorted some Best Buy today. I’ve been looking for a favorable point to do so but had not seen (or known) what I was looking for until today. Its post-earnings rally seemed to run out of steam and the chart shows a failed rally on a day when the market indices went out near their highs. Seems weak to me, but I also have the feeling of trying to catch a falling (or in this case flying) knife. I will stop out of the trade pretty quickly if it moves against me.

Disclosure: Short BBY

 

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