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June 18, 2008

Trouble Brewing

There are times in one's trading career where the market tends to do the unimaginable. When no matter how thorough your analysis nor how high your confidence, the market up and acts like a mendacious lover and slaps you in the face.

Today was not one of those days.

The selling I've been discussing in recent posts materialized, and there is no reason to believe it is done. Volume accelerated today as did the decline in the banks. The BKX shed another 3%, and the picture does not look bright for any sudden turnaround. We are at a point where one bad headline could rip the market a new hole to fall through. Really, it's the type of situation for which owning puts seems ideal if not for the excessive premiums they sport. Market makers must be ramping up implied volatility.

On the commodity front, oil put in a solid 2% gain in today's session.

oil chart

My top call of a couple days ago is in jeopardy, but I'm not rescinding it just yet. We're really in a spot in which traders could start pricing in a more serious recession and bring oil's price down. it will be interesting to see what happens to precious metals in such a scenario. Do they fall going in a recession scenario or do they rocket higher in anticipation of more rate cuts to fight the recession?

Well, this is a late post, and I'm off to rest. Until tomorrow....

 

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