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October 4, 2006

Upper Right

Another day, another rally. Seems like the charts on my screen are always going out on the upper right part of the window. Today's session started out strong and never looked back. In fact, the buying accelerated in such a way during the latter half of the session as to look like panic short-covering. The end result was a 1.2% move for the SPX and a 2.5% surge on the NDX. Perhaps the action finally represents a capitulation of shorts from the summer rally. Then again, perhaps this is just wishful thinking.

The good news is I'm leaving the country tomorrow, and the last time I traveled abroad, the market swooned. Let's see if I can bring us bears such fortune again.

Gold and silver were spanked again in the early going, though gold recovered about half its losses and silver made it back to about even. In the early-going I picked up my first silver contract since April, and I intend to keep building this position as action permits. The early damage also saw mining shares getting hurt once again, but they put in excellent reversals to close positive. Maybe we can enjoy at least an intermediate-term rally from here. I've believed the miners would lead metals higher, so if the equities can put together a convincing rally, I will have much more confidence about picking up more silver contracts.

Wal-Mart shook up shareholders this morning by lowering expectations over September sales for the second time in a week. In response, WMT shares gapped 2% lower on the open, but it seems bad news expires more quickly than ever these days. Despite their warning, WMT got caught up in general a euphoria over retail shares and closed positive. I suppose traders are anticipating more celebration tomorrow when other retailers tell us how their Septembers went, and as usual, there were no qualms over Wal-Mart's warning shot. Bad news is always company-specific.

Disclosure: None


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