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July 8, 2008

Vacation

Tomorrow I begin a mini world tour which starts with a week in New York where I will catch up with a few acquaintances from my gig on Wall Street. From NYC I hop the pond to wear out pavement in London and Paris. I feel quite fortunate to have saved a pile of Euro from my last trip (2006, $1.27 per euro), but I do not look forward to buying the Queen's currency, nor thinking about how much of it I will part with!

If anyone out there has any favorite spots in London or Paris... especially culinary spots... drop a note in the comments section!

Along those lines, I'm afraid there will be a dearth of posts over the next month, though I may squeeze in a couple while I am still stateside. I will be keeping a daily eye on the scoreboards. If there are any thoughts I just cannot contain, I'll scatter an occasional comment over on Gary's blog.

As for today's action, stocks threw us a nice curve ball with a two o'clock rally that carried the SPX 25 points higher into the close. We saw similar rally last Tuesday, which also saw comparably high volume. That volume in conjunction with the fact that the SPX narrowly missed the March low lead me to believe a short-term bottom was in. I was proven wrong the next day. Will today's rally hold for a larger bounce? I don't know, but one important note is that we certainly have not reached the level of panic selling that accompanies significant bottoms.

Crude oil was tagged for another $5, but it still has not broken its 2008 trend line.

oil chart

Precious metals are holding up nicely. Silver recovered from a 2% drop to close flat, and gold back-tested is recent triangle breakout with success.

gold chart

I have to admit to being concerned about how the metals would behave once oil broke. Platinum concerns me a bit with its 7% drop over the last three days, but the psychology behind Pt is skewed more toward the industrial than the monetary. If crude violates its trendline without any significant damage to the PMs, I'll be beefing up my position.

 

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