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June 12, 2008

Wait and See Mode

The S&P 500 made a run at the 1325 support area before recovering in a last-hour rally. Given that the NYSE TICK produced a panic-sell reading right about the time the rally commenced (thanks for pointing that out, Gary), I'd say we have a pretty good chance of a bounce here. It will be vitally important to judge the characteristics of this bounce (should it occur) because it will tell us whether we next go to new 2008 highs or new 2008 lows.

stock chart

If the SPX back-tests its 65DMA at the same time the BKX back-tests the 75 level, you will find me heavily short.

Furthermore, the NDX found support at its own 65DMA today:

stock chart

So, we are set up for some important trials. If the market continues to move lower immediately, we could be in for a rapid decline. If it bounces here, we will need to ascertain whether the move is consolidative or impulsive. I closed out my SPX short late today to await clearer waters.


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