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January 27, 2009

Wait and See Mode

Not much changed today folks, so it's going to be a short wrap. I'm still keeping an eye on the rounded bottom formation on the 15-minute SPX chart. If it resolves higher, we work our way back to perhaps SPX 900. Lower, and we tank quickly to new bear market lows. Even if the formation breaks higher, I suspect any rally may run out of steam before targets are hit. Here's why:

stock index chart

The reversal in volume trend as the market has eeked its way higher tells me we're in corrective mode rather than impulsive. The plan remains to short a tag of the 65DMA or the upper triangle bound if such an approach is accompanied by a heavy selling-into-strength day.

Remember the A-B-C pattern hypothesized for Treasuries?

treasury bond chart

So that's the scoop until the market plays another card.


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